By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Wednesday, July 08, 2009 4:20 PM PT
Diplomacy: Outsourcing U.S. foreign policy to the OAS may sound good, but the reality remains that all nations, including ours, have interests. That may be why the U.S. is now shifting to a more workable stance on Honduras.
Related Topics: Latin America & Caribbean
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday announced a realistic plan to resolve the Honduras crisis by forging a deal with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to mediate a solution to the issue of who rules the Central American country.
Acting after meeting with ousted President Mel Zelaya, who was thrown out June 28 in a constitutional process, her initiative shows just how badly relying on the Organization of American States (OAS) has failed for the U.S. The new Arias plan may just succeed.
It couldn't come at a better time. Last Friday, OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza strutted like a colonial grandee into Tegucigalpa, threatening sanctions and the expulsion of Honduras if it didn't restore Zelaya. He refused to meet President Roberto Micheletti, warning: "We are not going to Honduras to negotiate."
It only strengthened Honduras' resolve against letting Zelaya return. After Insulza raised the stakes, Zelaya tried to fly into Tegucigalpa's airport, setting off riots that left two dead.
Government support strengthened though, with the Church, businesses and crowds in the streets all holding together.
"Honduras is an example to the world. We don't have money. We don't have oil. We have balls," read a hand-lettered sign from a defiant street protester in support of his government.
With sentiment like this, Hondurans signaled they would set their own course, follow their own constitution and pay whatever price, no matter what the OAS did. "Better six months of isolation than 20 years of Chavez," Micheletti said.
Arias isn't impartial as a mediator, given his vote to condemn and expel Honduras from the OAS. But he has a record of successful mediation in El Salvador, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1987, and is willing to engage all parties instead of dictate a solution. The existing government in Honduras is still free to reject anything outrageous, which couldn't be any worse for Honduras than OAS threats.
For Clinton, it's a sign that reality has sunk in and Zelaya, an unpopular, vainglorious and anti-U.S. leader, is unlikely to be returned to power. Not only does Honduras' constitution forbid it, but Hondurans don't want it, and time is running out. Instead, elections may be moved forward, or amnesties issued as talks start Thursday.
Maybe history is forcing the new Clinton stance: The last time the U.S. tried to reinsert a deposed leader, in 1994 with Haiti's Jean Bertrand Aristide, the result was chaos. Clinton was first lady then.
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, of course, thrives on chaos and is doing all he can to stoke it. But the U.S. in particular doesn't need chaos in Honduras, given the country's strategic location as a transit point for illegal drugs and the threat that criminal cartels pose to the political stability of regional governments.
The new Clinton plan also serves to strengthen the interests of Honduras' neighbors in the emerging bloc of Panama, Colombia and Mexico, all of which do not want a chaotic Honduras.
The three nations did stress earlier that there should be no foreign interference in Honduran affairs, even as they went with the OAS consensus, and all have moved in this direction. Panama offered mediation. Mexico offered asylum to Zelaya. Colombia stopped a 60-person Venezuelan convoy "battalion" of aid headed to Honduras at its border to ward off Chavista cash and interference.
What it adds up to is U.S. interests — not those of Venezuela or Nicaragua — becoming predominant in ending the crisis in Honduras, and in a way that's acceptable to Hondurans and their neighbors.
This will work far better than letting the OAS continue its grandstanding. Sure, some may say Hillary blinked. But it's a good blink.
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